Data News
COVID-19 effects on California's Job Market in 2020
A look at fluctuation within occupational demand
February 8, 2021
Cal State Fullerton currently has access to data tools from labor analytics firm EMSI
that can be used to examine workforce trends. EMSI’s Analyst tool aggregates labor market information from various government sources (e.g., US Census Bureau, IPEDS), combined with job postings analytics, to report what is happening in the labor market. Data from the Analyst tool enables Cal State Fullerton constituents to explore occupational trends and outlooks, explore real-time trends in job postings, provide academic programs with data on employer demands and the competitive landscape (e.g., completions in programs offered by other higher education institutions within the region), and gain a better understanding of the populations in the counties served by the university (e.g., demographics, educational attainment, economy).
The Office of Assessment and Institutional Effectiveness (OAIE) used Analyst to examine the effects of COVID-19 on the California job market between February 2020 and December 2020. Unemployment, occupational demand trends, job posting activity, and skillsets data were examined.
Unemployment in California reached a peak in April 2020, with 2,993,791 unemployed. However, this number decreased by November to 1,491,592. According to Strada's Work and Education survey
, California's peak matches the national job loss peak. In April 2020, the percentage of national survey participants who reported losing their job, income, or hours (of work) was 61%. Unemployment patterns in four regions (Los Angeles County, Orange County, Riverside County, and San Bernardino County) served by Cal State Fullerton followed a similar progression; however, unemployment peaked in May at 1,511,929 and decreased by November to 792,382.
Related to unemployment, the state's response to COVID-19 caused shifts in job demand. Between February to December 2020, the five occupations with the largest decreases in demand were ‘exercise trainers and group fitness instructors’ (-76%), ‘meeting, convention, and event planners’ (-75%), ‘healthcare support workers, all other’ (-67%), ‘audiologists’ (-61%), and ‘teaching assistants, except postsecondary’ (-60%). The five occupations with the largest increases in demand were ‘loan interviewers and clerks’ (145%), ‘respiratory therapists’ (79%), ‘zoologists and wildlife biologists’ (68%), ‘transportation, storage, and distribution managers’ (48%), and ‘licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses’ (47%).
Fluctuations in job posting activity correspond to the changes in job demand. Job posting activity in California fluctuated for companies between February to December 2020. The five companies with the largest job posting activity decreases were Card (-100%), Kindred (-99%), Swing Education, Inc. (-98%), United States Department of the Air Force (-97%), and OneMain Financial Holdings, LLC (-97%). Google Inc. (276%), Microsoft Corporation (202%), AbbVie Inc. (180%), Facebook, Inc. (163%), and JPMorgan Chase & Co (156%) had the largest increases in job posting activity. Analysis of this job posting data yields the latest trends in job skills demand.
The fluctuation in demand for job skills between February 2020 and December 2020 was analyzed by grouping the job skills into three categories, hiring skills, resilient skills, and furloughed skills (Belschner, 2020
). Hiring skills are the top skills across the 20 occupations with the greatest job posting growth. The top five hiring skills are ‘Oracle Cloud’ (261%), ‘mortgage loans’ (197%), ‘cloud infrastructure’ (165%), ‘customer success’ (165%), and ‘sales process’ (162%). Resilient skills are the top skills across all occupations that experienced an increase in job postings; a possible indicator of skills that may remain in demand. The top five resilient skills are ‘mortgage loans’ (181%), ‘asset protection’ (159%), ‘design specifications’ (158%), ‘Workday (software)’ (156%), and ‘logistics management’ (146%). Furloughed skills are the top skills across the 20 occupations with the greatest job posting decline. The top five furloughed skills are ‘aerobics’ (-95%), ‘risk analysis’ (-95%), ‘tuberculosis’ (-94%), ‘NESTA’ (-94%), and ‘tuberculosis management’ (-94%).
The California job market continues to rapidly evolve in response to state and national efforts to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic, and more fluctuations in workforce demand are expected as the COVID-19 vaccine rolls out. Cloud-based occupations may continue to grow as telecommuting has proven more successful than once thought. Many large corporations, including Google, Facebook and Twitter, plan on allowing their employees to telecommute for extended periods or forever (Brownlee, 2020
; Kelly, 2020
). Although vaccine distribution has begun and Governor Newsom recently lifted the stay-at-home order, it's possible the demand for specific healthcare workers such as licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses will continue to grow to address ICU capacity needs. However, some occupations that decreased in demand in 2020 could face long recovery times.
The EMSI Analyst product is a powerful tool that can be used to track occupational demand trends within a specific region or nationally. As the pandemic unfolds, access to timely economic data supports data-driven decisions colleges and departments need to make as they keep pace with the changing workforce needs within the regions the university serves. To learn more about regional workforce trends see the Regional Impact of COVID-19: Change in Job Demand from February 2020 to December 2020
report. To request workforce data available in Analyst, contact OAIE at 657 278-2593 or data@fullerton.edu for more information.
Sources:
Belschner, B. (2020, October 12-13). Bonus monthly training: Recreate the regional impact report [Conference session]. Emsi 2020 Conference, Moscow, ID, United States. https://www.economicmodeling.com/video/bonus-monthly-training-recreate-the-regional-impact-report/
Brownlee, D. (2020, May 18). Twitter, Square announce work from home forever option: What are the risks?. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/danabrownlee/2020/05/18/twitter-square-announce-work-from-home-forever-optionwhat-are-the-risks/?sh=31d4210c2565
Kelly, J. (2020, August 7). Facebook tells employees to work from home up until summer 2021. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2020/08/07/facebook-tells-employees-to-work-from-home-up-until-summer-2021/?sh=37751bcf6d8d
<h3>Cal State Fullerton Celebrates Growth - 9/29/2020</h3>
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<p>As the Fall semester kicks off here at Cal State Fullerton, the Office of Assessment and Institutional Research is proud to share some positivity during these uncertain times.</p>
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<p>It was a record-breaking year for degrees awarded in 2019/2020. The overall number of degrees awarded to Hispanic students (X,XXX) reached a new high. This high included new records for Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees awarded for both Hispanic women and men (see Table 1). The records set are part of a steady incline of Hispanic graduates that have taken place over the last few years. This is a welcomed trend as the University continues to serve as an HSI institution.</p>
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<p>The achievement is also part of larger success for Cal State Fullerton in setting a new record for degrees awarded to underrepresented students (see Figure 1 or Table 2), including any student who has identified their race/ethnicity as African American, American Indian or Native American, Hispanic, or Pacific Islander.</p>
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<p>Cal State Fullerton also ranked as a top 20 Regional West University by US News & World Report. Our accolades in the report include ranking number nine in the social mobility category and number five in the most innovative category. The success in the rise of degrees awarded attributes to social mobility rankings as degrees tend to allow for upward mobility for generations to come.</p>
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<p>Degree data is collected and updated every year. It can be viewed and downloaded via the dashboards on the Office of Assessment and Institutional Research’s website at http://www.fullerton.edu/data/institutionalresearch/ . Viewers can study the trends described in this article and more by exploring the dashboards and adjusting dashboard filters to get specific information. Data from the last eleven years is available and can be used for grant applications, Program Performance Reviews, and more.</p>
